Trek Dirty to Me: 49 days until I am one of a few thousand attempting a thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, and the odds are not in our favor.

So it is time for a reality check on thru-hike attempts of the Appalachian Trail. According to the Appalachian Trail Conservancy (ATC), about three million visitors hike a portion of the trail each year.

Of those three million, only a few thousand are classified as ‘thru-hikers,’ or those attempting to cover the length of the trail’s approximately 2,200 miles either northbound, southbound or flip-flopped (changing directions to avoid bad weather or for other considerations).

In 2019, the ATC reported approximately 4,000 individuals who fell into one of these three categories of thru-hikers. Eighty-two percent of those attempting a thru-hike chose to go northbound like me: starting on Springer Mountain, Georgia and hiking north to Mt. Katahdin, Maine.

Of those approximately 4,000 thru-hikers, 323 reported completion of their thru-hike. That is an 8% success rate in what many have identified as a particularly grueling, wet and miserable hiking season. The 2019 completion numbers will increase as as more data is collected, but you begin to get the picture.

Here are the completion percentages, as reported by the ATC, for the previous seven years:

• 2018 - 19.5%

• 2017 - 19.5%

• 2016 - 21%

• 2015 - 25%

• 2014 - 27%

• 2013 - 26.5%

• 2012 - 26.5%

As you can see, one’s likelihood of finishing a thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail has gone from about a 1 in 4 chance to a 1 in 5 chance in just a few years. It should also be noted that the number of thru-hikers doubled from 2012 to 2018.

The Trek has an interesting look at the decline in successful thru-hikes that you can access here and here. The big contributors aren’t difficult to figure out though - a lack of preparedness and injury are the major culprits. Waning finances, family, work and other considerations also play a role, but folks tend to give up because of they hurt themselves or they realized that they bit off a bit more than they could chew. Of those going northbound, it is often noted that approximately 50% of thru-hikers quit by the time they reach the Smoky Mountains (which I have myself entering on Day 18 of my planned 175 days on the trail).

So those are the numbers. What I am going to do to try to beat the odds?

Well, for starters, I’m super fucking stubborn. I have been training my body with a focus on injury proofing myself. I have put together a hike plan that is conservative and manageable. I have points along the trail that pull me along -specifically interviews for my project.

Despite an almost 20-year hiatus from the outdoors, the first half of my life WAS the outdoors, and that knowledge, experience and skill haven’t gone anywhere. I know what I am doing in the woods (or desert, or jungle, or desert island, or whatever), and I will have my body in the best shape possible and take care of it along the way with my diet, pace and continued conditioning.

I have dealt with tougher odds than 20% before in my life (admission to the United States Naval Academy - 9%, Eagle Scout - 4%, Martinsville High School Vocal Jazz Award for Show Choir - 3%). I can do this again. I can do this hike. But I’m sure everybody is thinking the same thing.

-AJ

Perhaps my finest 2 minute photoshop yet.

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